Dana Chiodo has been producing information on Texas candidates for business organizations, political action committees and lobbyists since 1994. She designs a formula to determine the Republican/Democratic base vote in each district, and several organizations rely on her numbers including Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report. Kronberg said, “I have been involved with Chiodo’s campaign reporting service since its inception. Her statistical analysis of district profiles is unique and has been more accurate than most. Chiodo has a had a high rate of success in predicting partisan leanings in congressional and legislative districts as well as probable general election outcomes.”

Here is what Harvey Kronberg of the Quorum Report wrote about Dana Chiodo’s demographic trends information on December 4, 2007

December 4, 2007 4:29 PM ã Copyright December 4, 2007 by Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved

CHIODO SORTS OUT DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN STRENGTH IN SWING DISTRICTS

Trend lines show shifts for both parties in numerous districts

With candidate filings in full swing, handicappers around the state are trying to decide where there are targets of opportunity for partisan shift in both Congress and the Texas Legislature.

The state is nearing the end of the redistricting cycle which means population and demographic shifts are seven years further down the road than when the Legislative Redistricting Board divvied up communities of interest to maximize Republican seats. Although the operative congressional map is more recent, even that one is beginning to show some wear and tear as populations move.

Every couple of years we check in with premier elections number-cruncher and lobbyist Dana Chiodo to get her perspective. For about ten years now, Chiodo's Texas Campaigns has been slicing and dicing Texas elections trying to divine future prospects for incumbents and challengers.

Unlike the composites worked up by sometime hyper-optimistic partisans, Chiodo's subscribers are typically lobby and business groups seeking a realistic assessment of electoral prospects before plunking down personal and PAC dollars in a campaign. Chiodo drills down into the numbers and profiles of the districts at a level unmatched by any other reporting service.

With a weak national Republican story line, a controversial speaker and a re-emerging center, this cycle could be as surprising as the last when six Democrats triumphed in House districts drawn for Republicans.

Some of Chiodo's conclusions are expected. For instance, statistically, rural Texas continues to become increasingly Republican although she considers Joe Heflin's (D-Crosbyton) HD85 to be the highest rated Republican (61.45%) to be won by a Democrat last cycle -- admittedly with the help of former Democratic speaker Pete Laney.

Others are more surprising. For instance, she sees border districts trending increasingly Republican For instance, Pete Gallego (Alpoine) is only 50.68% D, Abel Herrero (Robstown) is 53.02%D and Tracy King (Batesville) is 54.82%. All would be considered swing districts and if current trends continue will be competitive for Republicans in the not too distant future.

Two years ago, Chiodo reported that once rock solid Republican surburban counties were showing signs of Democratic growth in the areas adjacent to nearby cities. She hypothesized upwardly mobile minority families were moving to the nearby suburbs and changing the vote. Her observations were prophetic. Although an admittedly controversial figure because of toll roads, incumbent Mike Krusee (R-Round Rock) had a near death experience in the last election, eking out a fractional majority against a virtually unfunded Democratic opponent and a libertarian. Chiodo's numbers peg his district at 56.43% Republican.

But, as with any methodology in Texas, the absence of viable statewide Democrats on the ballot this decade makes the legislative and congressional numbers look perhaps too Republican. Based on her statistics, Chiodo has 17 Democrats in districts she puts in the 50-65% Republican category.

But then again, Democrat Allen Vaught beat Republican Bill Keffer in what was then a 57.65% Republican district.

For all practical purposes, Chiodo considers anything up to 60% to be a competitive district and history bears her out. However, at least in theory, there are more Democrats holding lean Republican districts than are the reverse.

Here’s what some of her subscribers had to say about the candidate information she provides:

“I did the same type of analysis for years, but when I realized Dana’s was better than mine, I just subscribed. It simply is the best.”

           - Austin Lobbyist Bill Messer

“The Chiodo report is not only timely but provides the only objective, nonpartisan report on statistics and background information on all the candidates and legislative offices during the campaign season.”

           - Camille D. Miller, President/CEO of Texas Institute for Health Policy Research

“The most measurable and reliable information in Texas political tool box is Dana Chiodo’s candidate information. There is just not much else you can depend on to be accurate in the realm of Texas politics.”

           - Phil Cates, Texas Stakeholders